South Africa vs Bangladesh - How Bangladesh Can Win It

From 1999, when Bangladesh started their journey in the World Cup cricket, to 2019, when Bangladesh is respected as a team who can beat anyone on their day, things have improved a lot. Gradually, we have come from – playing for a good result to playing for the win. Though it was not much unexpected, still it raised so many eyebrows when Bangladesh reached the knock-out phases of the 2015 World Cup and 2017 Champions’ Trophy. Perhaps this time, it will not be much of a surprise if Bangladesh reaches the top 4 positions of the group phase and consequentially achieves a spot in the semis. The world of cricket analysts is no longer hesitant to call Bangladesh as their dark horse to reach the semis. Saying all of these, cricket analysts are also in agreement that, this could be the most competitive World Cup. And, so, it will not be an easy task to be among the top 4 teams. Obviously, Bangladesh has to give its 100% to all of the 9 matches to not only win the required number of matches but also make sure the run rate does not drop much when they lose. In this article, we will be talking about the pitch, condition, opponent and above all, what Bangladesh cricket team must do to make sure they come out with a great result.

Pitch Report

The pitch of the ‘Oval’ is a batting paradise. Out of 16 innings in the last 10 matches (2 were washed out), 9 times teams have scored more than 300 or achieved a run rate higher than 6 (One curtailed innings). Out of those 8 matches, 6 times teams won chasing. The highest score was 356/5 by West Indies but they ended on the losing side as England managed to score 258/5 in 35 overs in a rain-shortened match. Spinners are not at all welcome on this pitch. Usually, seamers have a better chance of getting wickets. Bowlers should go for early wickets as once batsmen are settled, they are difficult to get rid of. Bowlers also need to make sure they keep taking wickets in the middle overs to keep the pressure on. Otherwise, the batting team can fire back later anytime if they keep wickets in hand. The pitch gets easier to bat at the later part. Teams have lost 4 out of 5 times even after scoring 300 plus. So, after winning the toss, the captains must always choose to bowl first.  

The Game – How Bangladesh can overpower South Africa

South Africa will have the advantage of playing their first match against England at the same venue. But, Bangladesh can snatch the advantage by focusing on the mistakes that South Africa will make in that match. South Africa in their last 2 matches in this same venue has ended on either side of the results. Although they did not manage a score of 300 plus, they defended 299 against Sri Lanka in the Champions Trophy 2017. In the other match, they only managed 191/10 against India and lost the match by 8 wickets. That was also in the same tournament. Bangladesh last played here against England at the Champions’ Trophy 2017. Bangladesh ended up on the losing side even after scoring 305/6. England easily chased down the total in 48 overs keeping 8 wickets in hand. If Bangladesh bowls first, they must look for early wickets. Quinton de Kock and Hashim Amla both are in great touch. Though Hashim Amla has been in and out of team quite recently due to injuries, he showed he is in great form in the warm-up matches. Quinton de Kock is among the best openers since World Cup 2015 beside Rohit Sharma and Tamim Iqbal. Recently, in most of the matches, South Africa managed a good defendable total when Quinton de Kock scored more than 50. So, South Africa’s good scores are mostly based on good starts by their openers. If Bangladesh can return their openers quickly that can put them in to pressure. In the middle order, captain Faf du Plessis has been the most consistent performer. He usually takes some deliveries at the start to settle down and once he is settled he can easily take care of the strike rate. Though South Africans do not have a solid middle order, and which can be labeled as their weak link, van der Dussen has been among runs whenever he got the opportunity. Apart from him, experienced batsmen like David Miller and J P Duminy can turn the match around on their day. So, not only is it important to take early wickets to put the pressure on South Africa, it is also necessary to take regular wickets during the middle period to stop a late blast by batsmen like Miller, Duminy and Morris. During chasing, Bangladesh needs to keep wickets in hand. But, they need to make sure not to keep much hitting left for the end as Kagiso Rabada and Chris Morris both are well known for their Yorker delivering capability at the death overs. While chasing big totals, it is always important to make sure not to lose the flow of runs. If one set batsman gets out, the partners should make sure there is no frequent fall of wickets. Also, Bangladesh batsmen should always remember about the possibility of rain. On the match day, there is a possibility of rain. So, it will be very important to keep wickets in hand and know about the Duckworth and Lewis (DL) target always.

If Bangladesh bats first, it will be the responsibility of the openers, Shakib and Mushfiq to keep wickets and hand and maintain a good run rate while batsmen like Mahmudullah, Mosaddek, Sabbir etc. must make sure to end on a high note by scoring quick runs at the end. If it rains, it becomes more important to keep wickets in hand in the first innings as it is well established that DL method helps the chasing team. Any scores above 300 keep the defending team mentally ahead. But, as described through the stats, 300 plus scores have been easily chased down in this field. While defending any total, Bangladesh has to take wickets in regular interval. Wickets can dry up the runs and raise the asking run rate.

South Africa is a great fielding team. Bangladesh has to be good at running between the wickets, which has been a usual problem. Also, Bangladesh needs to field well and not to give away any chance.

Team

Most of the positions are well-confirmed for Bangladesh. Tamim and Soumya have been very successful in the triangular series in Ireland. Shakib and Mushfiq are among runs in the middle order. Mahmudullah has been a great finisher in the lower middle order for a long time. For bowlers, my recommendation is to play 4 specialist seamers – Masrafee, Saifuddin, Mustafizur and Rubel. Rubel has shown his wicket-taking ability in the warm-up match. Masrafee and Saifuddin have been very consistent with line and length at the opening as well as the death overs. Though Mustafizur is leaking runs, he can turn the match any day any time. Along with these 9 players, I would put Liton and Mosaddek due to their recent form. Liton has shown good sign of responsible batting in the limited opportunity he got in the triangular series and the warm-up match. Mosaddek can be a great finisher and also can be handy with his part-time bowling. May be in a slightly spin-friendly pitch, Mehidy can be a better option over Rubel but on this pitch 4 seamers are a must.

Prediction

It will be a rain-curtailed match. Whoever bats second will win the match. Bangladesh’s batting line-up has good depth. They have the right temperament and skills to chase down a total. On the other hand, South Africa’s batting line-up is well known for their T-20 skills and can easily chase down a rain-curtailed target.